Thursday, September 4, 2008

The "Palin" rally-Hah!

Across the pond, the press loved her speech.

From the Telegraph:

Sarah Palin wins over Republican Convention with attack on Barack Obama

Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, John McCain's vice-presidential running mate, has electrified the Republican convention, declaring herself an "average hockey mom" and launching a blistering attack on Barack Obama.

From the Financial Times:

But there was nothing artificial about the energy and enthusiasm that crackled across the convention hall at the end of her speech. After months of depression and unrest, this was the moment when belief and resolve returned to the Republican rank and file.

Ms Palin’s popularity stems in large part from her social conservatism as a staunch opponent of abortion and more broadly from her rugged, small-town values as a lifelong enthusiast of hunting and fishing. On Wednesday, she tried to extend her earthy appeal beyond the conservative base by portraying herself as an “ordinary mom” and champion of average voters against the elite liberals allegedly represented by Mr Obama.

“In small towns, we don’t quite know what to make of a candidate who lavishes praise on working people when they are listening, and then talks about how bitterly they cling to their religion and guns when those people aren’t listening,” she said, referring to notorious remarks by Mr Obama at a closed-door fundraising dinner in San Francisco. “We tend to prefer candidates who don’t talk about us one way in Scranton and another way in San Francisco.”

She answered Democratic mockery of her spell as mayor of Wasilla, a town of 8,500 people, by drawing attention to Mr Obama’s own background as a community organiser in Chicago. “I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organiser,’ except that you have actual responsibilities,” she said, to hoots of derision at Mr Obama’s expense.

And it sold in Middle America. I got a call from my Mom at 11:30 at night!

I'm sure the press here will say it was shrill and strident. Aren't those the words they always throw out? But if McCain picks up steam, look at the coal stocks.

Yesterday Cramer had this to say about coal:

Now, what's getting killed? Coal. I think coal's dead as a doornail under Obama. I can't imagine any utility management in its right mind building anything coal right now. That could be part of the endless decline in McDermott (MDR - commentary - Cramer's Take), too, a coal play for certain. The fact that China's absent from the scene shows you what the domestic demand situation for coal could be like under Obama. Awful...

Somehow the anticipated coronation of Obama, perhaps because of the veep, is getting factored into this market. That's making it ugly for lots of key groups, and we are feeling it for certain.

That's the common knowledge on the street. I see things a little different, but that what makes a market.

Arch Coal (ACI 43.89), Massey (MEE 55.77) and Peabody (BTU 53.39) look like they hit a trading bottom today.

Tonight Palin gives her Vice President speech, and I think she hits it out of the park. I think she will be perceived to be personable, likable, and trustworthy tonight-at least by Middle America.

Obama already has the college professor vote, along with Wall Street, and there's more than a few on the street that thinks he'll crush coal.

Crush coal?

I don't even know if team Obama can take on a chick from Alaska!

I think Palin will be the "energy" girl. Her speech showed that yesterday. That's why she touted clean coal and energy. America wants lower gas prices, and it's hard to argue againt that. Lower my gas prices, and we'll overlook the "experience" issue-the same "experience" issue that we kick politicians out of Washington for! Call it a stretch, but I'm looking for any excuse to buy some of these beaten down names in materials, and take a stab at a rally in coal.

I just want to say it's a "Palin" rally because that's what will irritate the most people!

The market should open down, close to a retest of yesterday's lows. Traders will want to make sure yesterday's advertised "snapper" is real. And that's where you want to buy.

When you have a "snapper" rally, you don't have follow through the next morning. The stocks are still down too far on the charts, and "no-one" is comfortable buying because "no-one" knows when the liquidations are done. But if the market opens down, and the names they want to buy are only down a fraction, then for those without the information on the liquidations, that's their tell that you can step in and buy alongside "no-one." And then you get a decent rally.

Remember yesterday after the close, Lehman rallied close to a buck higher in the after hours on rumors that Mitsubushi UFJ was going to take a stake in Lehman. This was later denied.

Sort of like Korea Development Bank's interest, then non interest then interest again. How many leaks will Lehman give us that aren't real?

Lehman is being used as the "psychological" weapon in the market, but next week, they'll pre-announce earnings and we'll be done with them.

But this should be countered with bullish hype on next Tuesday's Apple meeting. Watch RIMM and IBM also. RIMM had real buying at 114, and IBM had at 116.

We have so many tells on this market, that you have to be able to make some money today off of the "Palin" rally!

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