Monday, December 10, 2007

Moses 1, Ackman 0

Remember this post November 29?

"I'd assume Pershing Square is going to get even a bit more publicity the next few days. Yesterday William Ackman announced on CNBC that he would donate his future share of his bet winnings against the mortgage insurers to charity. I'd like to see a ton of money go to The Robin Hood Foundation, but the merry men at Pershing would be better off picking up more shares of Sears, than picking on the mortgage insurers.

Intellectually their argument is sound, except for one caveat. What happens if housing prices stabilize and start going up? Mr. Ackman assumes that by next June, Ambac Financial (ABK 23.41) will be broke. So how is it, that a billionaire can give money to the Pershing Square Foundation and be lauded? His bet only pays off if the poor and sub-prime are displaced, and home values continue their spiral downwards, affecting millions more than his contribution to the charities would benefit. I want the other side."
MBI, Ackman's other short, is getting funding today, and Ambak (ABK 30.70) is up $3.86 today on that news! You could believe the billionaire, who said it would be impossible for these companies to have a capital raise, or you could believe this blog.

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