Wall Street Manna

An irreverent look at Wall Street

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Merrill's economic forecast

Here's an 8 point summary of Merrill's latest economic forecast.

  • Q3 growth was 4.9% but the fastest growth was in inventories up $17 billion!
  • Home prices down 15 months in a row, and housing is in a "depression."
  • 80% of all the job growth this year are "created" by the birth/death model.
  • Consumer confidence is as low as when Hurricane Katrina hit, and has plunged 25 points in 4 months!
  • S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2008 are $83.00, down from $89.00.
  • 132 occurrences of "weak" or "slow" in latest Fed beige book report.
  • 7th consecutive monthly drop in Merrill's consumer stress index.
  • Jobs forecast for Friday: an uptick to 4.8% unemployment, with just 50,000 jobs created.

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