Saturday, November 24, 2007

FNM-As advertised!

Wednesday morning, I said Fannie Mae at 27.97 could move to 32-33. It closed today at 32.20. It took a day. Why the move? It's simply Wall Street's dishonestness.

FNM doesn't have the losses that Wall Street is estimating. In some cases, they are overestimated by a factor of 10. Over Thanksgiving, cooler heads probably decided to do some research. Throw in the news of the Super SIV fund, ECB money market injections and Europe's non-trading of covered bonds, mortgage insurance bailouts, and ResCap's buying back of bonds, and the market was poised to ramp, even without an intermeeting cut by the Fed, who is now poised to move 50 basis points December 11. And you want to stay short?

But Goldman Sachs is doing their best to panic financial holders. Downgrading the financials at the bottom like C and FNM, and yelling fire in the crowded sub-prime theater. Buy them, when Goldman screams. They are the ones that need to cover their shorts.

Maybe their trading agenda is different from the reality facing the marketplace. It might be getting a tad crowded, especially since Paulson, one of the largest shorts is looking to go long. And if you don't know what his track record is, you shouldn't be listening to the drivel that the brokerage firms are spouting.

The firms, who have bet against sub-prime need sellers so they can cover. So yell "fire' in the crowded theater. And get the fools to sell, at prices, only fools would sell at.