Monday, November 26, 2007

Buy retail stocks at wholesale

You'll probably hear how Black Friday is just electronics, and it won't make Christmas, but the retail stocks are already pricing in a recession. Last week Target (TGT 57.17) missed numbers and the stock traded down to 51. It'll probably print 59 Monday.

Look at JCPenney (JCP 41.30) and Sears (SHLD 112.58). Both stocks are within two points of their yearly low, and at these levels, all the bad news is already priced into the stocks. JCP can tack on 10, and SHLD can add 20 points by Christmas.

Which means you don't need another reason to buy the stocks.

But if you can't buy either of these stocks at these prices, you really shouldn't be in this market. They are compelling values at these prices, and they need to be bought now. The typical Wall Streeter shops at Nordstrom, Target, Best Buy and Costco, so these are overlooked.

If you can't stomach buying at yearly lows then go buy where you shop, and take down some call options on JCP and SHLD. The whisper circuit will eventually tout some type of restructuring or spin-off because the game is to move the prices of the pieces of paper.

And at these prices you can game the stocks.

2 comments:

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