Friday, November 30, 2007

The Bear's foundation crumbles

hysteria: unmanageable fear, the lose of self-control by overwhelming fear.

Where did the hysterical bears go? They didn't go anywhere! They just switched topics to be hysterical about! How ironic is that? They tried their best to inject fear and loathing into the market, and some probably believed their own hype. But now the bears are hysterical. Hysterical about their bets on housing Armageddon!

Whoops! I don't think the bears expected this! Oil prices down, with bigger interest rate cuts coming from the Fed. Housing and financials were the bear's argument. They're gone. The Fed, by aggressively cutting solves these problems, and by holding the rates on mortgage resets, that inventory is kept off the market. Which means a hysterical scramble by the bears in covering the shorts they've laid out on the financials, and the mortgage insurers.

And the shorting in these stocks is off the charts. Maybe that's why I've been recommending them when they were playing these games. Use rumor and innuendo, with a mixture of yellow journalism that even Hearst would of been proud of to hustle these stocks down.

That game is over. It's time to pick up the pieces. And it will take time for many of these shorts to recognize the folly of holding their positions. But the market will not give them time. It's giving the bears a V shaped rally. So they buy the futures, and the ETF's and then try and bring in some of their names.

And it will happen at much higher levels.

And Mr. Ackman's bet? It had a shelf life of two days. Like Ms. Whitney's call that Citigroup "would 100% cut their dividend." Or Goldman's cut of Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. I'm only harping on these calls because I want to expose the nonsense that happens in the market at turning points.

So the next time, when they trot these highly paid shills out, you will understand it's just a highly paid shill's opinion.

That was wrong.


Anonymous said...

A day after Florida froze withdrawals from its government investment fund, an advisory committee to the state board met with some of the fund's investors late Friday to determine how it can lift the moratorium without sparking a run on the $15 billion fund.

Anonymous said...

In Montana, the Board of Investments has been hit with $247 million in withdrawals this week from a $2.5 billion fund called the Short Term Investment Pool following reports about Florida's problems.