Sunday, December 7, 2008

The "priced-in" market

Friday the market rallied on the bleak un-employment numbers. Now it looks like even the macro news is being priced in this market.

Stocks don't sell off on lower earnings either.

Research in Motion pre-announced lower earnings and the stock sold off one day.
Dupont announced lower earnings and the stock dropped a fraction then rallied.
Merck announced lower earnings and the stock is now higher.

The only stock of consequence that dropped on lower earnings was Freeport McMoran; and that probably was because it was still owned by hedge funds that are in liquidation, and it eliminated it';s dividend, but even now, this number is a buy.

Even bears like Fleckenstein, are closing down their short funds to get bullish.

John Paulson, who made $3.7 billion last year on bearish bets, is also looking to get long.

The richest men in the world are buying. Carlos Slim and Warren Buffett are buying, because stock prices reflect the bad news that everybody knows. And they are buying stocks from the most leveraged investors-the hedge funds that are puking up all of their positions.

Even the uber bear, Nouriel Rubini, is 100% long equities in his 401K.

Oil is down to $40 a barrel. I'm buying the DIG at 25.50. The same clowns that said oil was going to $200 now are telling us it is going to $25.

Long term rates are finally coming down, and now nobody thinks this matters. Maybe they should of told that to the record number of people refinancing their homes. I suppose if you don't run a hedge fund it matters.

So lower rates, and lower oil matter to the real world. And the only jobs available tomorrow morning for those professionals laid off from work, is to day trade.

Time to get bullish!