Saturday, December 20, 2008

Barrons: Expect the S&P to close 2009 at 1045

1045 in the S&P by the end of 2009?

That's not to say there won't be violent rallies and sharp pullbacks along the way. An urgent scramble to dump risky assets and hoard capital this year triggered a crisis of credit -- and confidence -- that wiped out more than half of the stock market's value. And while stocks quickly rebounded 18% from their late-November low, the dozen strategists and chief investment officers surveyed by Barron'sexpect the Standard & Poor's 500 index to finish 2009 near an average of 1045, or 18% above today's level of 888.

How about by the end of January! The last capitulation downward in this market was savage selling that in normal times, would of taken another 9 months in time. Instead it was done and finished in two months.

I advertised 10,400 and 1040, as my next targets. After that, who knows. But look for these numbers in 40 days. Maybe this link should be re-read!

Anyone that thinks it will take until the end of 2009 to hit these targets, does not understand these markets.

Just look at the moves we have had in currencies and in bonds just the last two weeks. The only chance that we have of moving up unabated is between now and the end of January. Markets don't allow these pension funds and bureaucratic stewards of money time to have a committee meeting to reallocate their funds. Instead you get vicious moves. A sharp vicious move up will be the move that will frustrate the greatest number of players.

All those that have already puked up their stocks won't have the mindset to buy, and those that are forced to puke up more stock by redemptions won't have to make that decision in January.

So we ramp.

And Friday, was the last of the selling, before we take the next leg up!

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