Wall Street Manna

An irreverent look at Wall Street

Friday, December 19, 2008

The latest by a CNBS guest-Oil at $17.85

Oh give me a break. Just like the lemmings were out bad mouthing the dollar at 1.46 against the euro, the same old tired shills are doing the same to oil, like the pimps did pumping it before it collapse. "Peak oil" remember that?

Now these oil bears are talking "container ships." There's a container ship and a half full at every port. There isn't any above ground storage left for oil. We have the greatest drop in oil consumption since 1983.

Big deal.

Has anybody looked at the price lately?

Who cut the oil price forecast yesterday? Wasn't that Deutsche Bank? How is their track record?Let's look at their forecast less than six months ago:

Deutsche increases their 2008 average oil forecast to $119.30/bbl from $95.50/bbl and 2009 average oil forecast to $120/bbl from $102.50/bbl. In addition, the firm long term oil price forecast for 2013 has been increased to $115/bbl from $81/bbl.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Deutsche+Bank+Raises+Their+Price+Target+on+Petrobras+(PBR)+to+$95;+Reiterates+Buy/3776701.html

On April 28, Deutsche bank was worrying about a rise in oil to $200 a barrel. In that report, they said that ...."Additional oil supplies will come only from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces 40 percent of the world's oil, because non-OPEC output will need ``enormous levels of investment'' just to maintain current levels of production."
http://netoilexports.blogspot.com/2008/04/deutsche-bank-forecast.html

Only OPEC? So now OPEC is completely marginalized? And now, when we have countries bragging about their Zero Interest Rate Policies, and we have countries around the globe looking to stimulate their economies, that now these lower prices in oil don't make a difference? Why did it make a difference on the way up? It doesn't make a difference, until it makes a difference. And then when it makes a difference, you have the traders front running those who actually need the oil. That's how traders work. So companies, that need oil, need to be buying it now. They need to hedge now.

What happened to the 10 year rate when the Fed said they would go in and buy? Did the Fed buy, or did the market front run them? What happened to the dollar? What happened to gold today? The same thing that will happen to oil! The trend will reverse.

The real buyers, need to take oil from the last leveraged guy puking up their positions. And a leveraged player, by definition, cannot take delivery of oil. He's a paper player.

And his paper has gone up in smoke!

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