Thursday, October 11, 2007

Retail sales

Ooooooh is it Halloween already? We are supposed to be worried about today's retail sales number. Does CNBC sell worry or ratings? Does this script sound familiar? It should, as I used the same wording last Friday before the "big" unemployment number. Whatever the number Wall Street smiles on it, as the worriers sold yesterday, just like the worriers sold the day before the unemployment numbers, and picked up stock late in the day. That's the playbook, and the script, and if you don't like it, think about this.

Remember when Matt Estrella did a little video work on behalf of the Patriots? The sportswriters said the Pats' were "tarnished" and this was a "blemish" and the NFL sent a big bad signal to Belichick in the form of a $500K fine. Does anybody care now? No. Because the Patriots have completely crushed their opponents. It's the same as Wall Street.

Eventually people will wise up that these sideline antics have nothing to do with the game, but until they do, they'll only be be able to commiserate intellectually. It took Vegas only two weeks until they widened the point spread sufficiently on the Pats, but bookies, unlike pundits, have their own money on the line, so they learn quicker. Learn from them.

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