And if that headline doesn't make sense, then you're not prepared for tomorrow's Fed meeting. The last time, when the Fed first cut the discount rate, you had Poole saying nothing needed to be done. What happened? The Fed cut .50.
Today it's Grep Ip's turn, of the WSJ. He had an article today entitled: Why Rate Cut isn't a Sure Thing. Here's the nugget from that piece:
But for policy makers, the decision is between the quarter-point reduction and no cut at all.
Misdirection my friends. Wall Street bears and hedge funds would love a quarter point cut, because a .50 basis point cut will allow stocks to continue their ramp, and the professionals are positioned incorrectly for that to happen. The Fed still needs to break the pervasive bearish psychology of the market and the weakness of the financials. That's why they cut the discount rate the day before options expired and .50 basis points in September.
So now the market wants you to believe that the Fed is floating trial balloons in the WSJ, and Ip's the source? Believe it if you want, but I don't buy it for a second, as I've said for the past two weeks that they'd chop off 50 basis points. But if you don't want this blog to be the source for the rate cut, then get conspiratorial. At least this way you can pass the information off as your own.
Anyone recall how many times Bernanke met with Treasury Secretary Paulson, the former chairman of Goldman Sachs? 58 times. What does Goldman Sachs think on the real time economics blog of the WSJ? They had this to say:
Many Fed officials probably continue to view the current episode as a mid-cycle slowdown rather than an all-out fight against a possible recession. In our view, however, a [half-percentage-point] move would be preferable because a 4.5% federal funds rate is still too high given the outlook for inflation and economic growth.
The Fed cuts .50, and that information is not in the market. And now you have the cover to move on it-Goldman Sachs has blessed it!