Monday, October 1, 2007

Nokia to bid for NVT?

According to the WSJ, Nokia is in deep discussions to buy NavTeq (NVT 77.97). They'll have to go to at least 103 to get it, giving it a take-out PE of 50 on 2008 earnings. Let's see private equity do that! Garmin (GRMN 119.40) then is the only GPS public play, and a 50 multiple on 2008 earnings estimates of $4 gives you a $200 target!

But what's with the picture of the moon's craters? Well, they are named for scientists, but Seth Chandler's crater is on the far side of the moon. He's the scientist in 1892 that discovered, the variation of latitude, now known as "Chandler's wobble." Now ICBM's and GPS systems will work. The poles had a twelve and fourteen month periodic motion cycle. When the phases were exactly out of phase, they canceled each other and there was was no variability of latitude. When a twelve month phase was completed, the other pole was behind by a 1/7 of a rotation, since it was on fourteen month cycle. So the variation would increase for 3 1/2 years, and then decrease the next 3 1/2. Now you know why 1/7, or .142857 is the greatest cyclic number in the world. But a target of 103? That comes from irony-its the months of data Gould used in his attempt to discredit Chandler's observations!

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