Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Cramer panics on the action in the financials or buy "gas!"

Enough already. The market is going higher, but the bears are trying to raid the financials down, to get other market players queasy. That, however, was the story last year. Look at Cramer's piece:

They are raiding the banks again! Drives me crazy, because you know that a rally without JP Morgan , Citigroup and Wells Fargo is based on nothing more than a cessation in hedge fund commodity selling plus a pulse found in the economy. As I wrote earlier in the Pfizer article, that's not a bad thing. We don't want a Grand Recession.

But I was disappointed in the aggressive selling and, of course, ProUltra shorting in this group, especially after the IndyMac buy by Mnuchin and company.

We keep hearing about so many things going right -- the mortgage rates coming down, the price of corporate bonds going up, the LIBOR rate going down -- but we don't see hide nor hair of actual big-time lending, just a shuffling of assets, a la General Electric's (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take) commercial real estate disposals. When I heard that GE's corporate paper sold out like hotcakes today, I took it as still one more sign that the banks should be bought.

I felt very alone .


If you are going to use the financials as the tell in this market, you will just be wrong. Oil stocks are going higher, fertilizer stocks are going higher, retail stocks are going higher, infrastructure stocks are going higher, commodity stocks are going higher, and today natural gas stocks will start to get stoked! So in honor of Cramer, I'll give you the bottom in gas. Sometimes he just gets too hyper-ventilated with it, that he can't see the forest for the trees!

And if you want to buy natural gas, you can finally buy UNG! Natural gas is done going down.

Why the "macro" calls? Because these hedge funds that blow up money act like they are the Masters of the Universe in macro calls. All of their strategy is proprietary.

I gave you the low in oil.

I gave you the top in bonds.

I gave you the reversal in the dollar.

I gave you the bottom in stocks.

I didn't give you the bottom in natural gas.

So today you get that! And I just wanted to follow the Wall Street rules of making a good call. Just make sure you make a lot of them! That's why I gave you six bottoms. After all doesn't a lottery have a pick 6?

It's just that I can't advertise the bottom in the financials until they get higher!

And at least now, I have all the "bottom" links on one post!


Arcturus said...

I like nat gas as well but with UNG you have to deal with contango, so on each roll, you fall further and further behind the actual performance of the commodity.

palmoni said...

That's true, unless it moves now. I was hoping it wouldn't take that long!