Saturday, January 24, 2009

"Aftermath of the Financial Crisises"

Barron's wrote about this paper in their weekly magazine today in Alan Ableson's column. A couple of his highlights are here:

First, asset markets of just about every kind suffer a bruising and prolonged battering. On average, for instance, real housing prices plunge 35%, and the agony stretches out over six years, while equity prices lose a whopping 55% over roughly 3½ years.

Second, output and jobs take it on the chin: The unemployment rate shoots up (again, on average) 7 percentage points over four years. Meanwhile, gross domestic product suffers losses averaging more than 9%, but -- scant consolation -- it happens more quickly, typically in two years or so.

Third, the real value of government debt tends to explode, shooting up an average 86% in the major post-war slumps.

If you don't want to read the "editoralized" report, it's here. And it's already been out a month.

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