Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Three tells in today's market

Burlington Northern (BNI 67.65) was up four and change after the whole world has been bad mouthing Warren Buffett and his holdings. Berkshire now has over 70 million shares in this number, and the stock never pulled back from the gate. It's earnings were OK last week but the bears laid out on the stock, which Warren took like a kid in a candy store.

Research in Motion (RIMM 53.91) was up three and change today after the hatchet job on this stock in the WSJ yesterday, knocked it down 2 and change. It beat back the bears on that number also.

Crucell NV (CRXL 19.31) was up almost two today, rebounding after Pfizer said they were going to buy Wyeth. Wyeth was in talks to buy CRXL before Pfizer offered them $68 billion to go to the altar. This number was over 23 a week ago, only to fall back to 17, and then it caught a bid today. The catalyst? I think it was the bid of $16 for CVTX by Japanese firm Astellas. Market players probably figured there was more M&A by big pharma for smaller drug companies.

I was going to mention CRXL this morning, but I got distracted with Liveris, so I figured I better mention another number tonite that I think can get a bounce tomorrow.

US Steel bounced after earnings that weren't so bad, but AK Steel (AKS 8.64) didn't. Their earnings were punk. On January 8th, Goldman Sachs put this stock on it's conviction buy list and the stock closed at 13. It's now down over a third in three weeks, and I think you can now buy it here.

With the news of the "bad bank" hitting the market quicker than anticipated and the move in the financials, maybe people will take another look at the Obama stimulus bill being pushed down the pipe. The action in those stocks could be quicker than expected also. The Buy-American of the Federal Highway Administration require all bidders to submit a bid based on furnishing domestic steel and iron materials. This, of course, will help X and NUE

But those workers, will buy some cars, which will help AKS which produces flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steel, for the automotive, appliance, construction and electrical power markets.

Maybe that logic is too much of stretch for the average stock buyer, but I like the entry point at 8 and change way better than Goldman's conviction buy at 13!

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