Friday, September 10, 2010
JPM now touts the 16% pre/post election move
"Equity markets have performed with remarkable consistence following midterm elections, with a median gain of 1.4% from September to Election Day and a 14.7% median performance in the six months following Election Day. This positive return was seen 18 of 22 times since 1920 (or 82%). We believe this reflects voter referendums – that is, if Congress sees a shift in majority (markets are relieved) and if there is no change, the result is a more “centrist” Washington. Returns were consistent, incidentally, whether midterms resulted in change of majority (gains 5 of 6 times, median gain of 11%) or no change in party majority at all (gains 13 of 16 times, median gain of 17.3%)."
Posted by Palmoni at 10:09 AM