Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Who writes these scripts?

The WSJ had this to say about the Fed cuts:

When the Federal Reserve cut rates yesterday, Wall Street held a party. But the Fed's move could backfire, helping spur another round of carefree borrowing that ends with an even bigger credit-market hangover.

Backfire? Are you kidding me? Real estate won't clear, banks in England need to be backed up by the BoE, and banks are still lugging LBO debt and debt from conduits backing commercial paper. With an all time record of short interest in the market, (that is people betting against the market) it seems these journalists are getting spoon fed from those with bearish inclinations. Maybe the shorts should consider these two things:

1) The discount rate cut was on the Friday of option expiration.
2) This 50 basis cut in rates was on the Tuesday before triple witching option expiration.

Does it occur to any of these bears, that just maybe, the Fed is attempting to break down the pervasive bearish psychology in the market? Does it also occur to these bears, that the Fed, by acting with a 50 basis point cut now, will not have to cut rates as deep as would of been necessary if they would of just done a 1/4 point? A small cut, would of prolonged the domestic economic agony in autos and housing. Now, the Fed will have a greater impact with their cuts because they are affecting the psychology of the market, and thus the confidence of consumers.

Those that look at the relative level of the indexes, miss the damage that has been done to a vast amount of stocks. When the shorts and underinvested bulls either start to cover or invest, stock prices will be substantially higher. And stocks will get a deserved PE expansion, as the uncertainity regarding the Fed has to be discounted by stock prices. Those that say otherwise, are just as mistaken, as those who are not buying a house now, or who did not cover their shorts into the meltdown we just had. Good prices were offered on a silver platter to buyers, but they smugly refused. Now it's the bulls turn to make the bears toss at night.

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