Monday, October 20, 2008

Deutsche Bank cuts oil price estimates

$60 a barrel in 2009.
$58 a barrel in 2010.

What hat did they pull these figures out of? At those prices, oil would be stimulative to the economy.

On April 28, they had this to say:

There is a ``huge risk'' that oil prices will continue to rise until demand collapses because additional supplies are limited and alternative fuels decades away from replacing crude, Deutsche Bank AG said.

``There is a huge risk that the oil price simply continues to escalate until it gets to some level ($200 a barrel?) when demand finally collapses because ordinary people can no longer afford to burn as much energy as they are burning now,'' Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist Adam Sieminski wrote in a report dated April 25.

Oil demand previously collapsed in the early 1980s, after nominal oil prices rose tenfold between 1970-73 and 1980-83, to $35 a barrel from around $3.50. Oil averaged about $25 a barrel from 2000-03, suggesting prices would have to increase to $250 a barrel in 2010-13 to have the same impact on oil users this time around, Sieminski said. Deutsche Bank's price forecast for Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil next year is $102.50 a barrel...

Additional oil supplies will come only from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces 40 percent of the world's oil, because non-OPEC output will need ``enormous levels of investment'' just to maintain current levels of production.

On June 27, Deutsche Bank upped their oil forecast again:

Deutsche increases their 2008 average oil forecast to $119.30/bbl from $95.50/bbl and 2009 average oil forecast to $120/bbl from $102.50/bbl. In addition, the firm long term oil price forecast for 2013 has been increased to $115/bbl from $81/bbl.$95;+Reiterates+Buy/3776701.html

On September 28, Deutsche Bank cut their oil price target to $92.50.

Now they are down to less than $60.

Maybe the biggest risk to oil prices, is Deutsche Bank's forecasting!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Very informative. Thank you!