And if the earnings are good? SELL it. And if the CEO says good things? SELL it. And if they say pricing is still tight? SELL it. And if he says this is a multi-year run in fertilizer? SELL it. And if another Wall Street shill comes out with another $340 target on Potash? SELL it.
Here's my feelings on Potash. Read it before earnings then SELL it.
Now before Apple reported, I said that you could just short the puts before earnings, and then buy the stock:
Why sweat it? Apple always seems to give you a chance to get in after the earnings release, and before the conference call. Some hedge fund will try muscling the stock in the thin market to make it appear that the news is bad. Pick off shares from him if you're quick and you're a bull.
And sell the premium on the way out of the money puts, to the bears buying protection before earnings who think the long lines at Apple are for those returning merchandise.
It worked. They sucked out the volatility on the naked puts, and they let you pick up the stock at 148, for a 20 point move in two days.
Use the Apple lesson to play Potash. The premium on the puts and calls have been skewed tremendously. If Potash reports a good number, the volatility will be crushed on the puts. Buy them then, if the stock gaps on a good number.
And then sell the puts, when it reverses.
The fertilizer trade is over.
And that's the play in Potash tomorrow.