Thursday, July 31, 2008

Opposite day!

George : Why did it all turn out like this for me? I had so much promise. I was personable, I was bright. Oh, maybe not academically speaking, but ... I was perceptive. I always know when someone's uncomfortable at a party. It became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I've ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every of life, be it something to wear, something to eat ... It's all been wrong.

Waitress : Tuna on toast, coleslaw, cup of coffee.

George : Yeah. No, no, no, wait a minute, I always have tuna on toast. Nothing's ever worked out for me with tuna on toast. I want the complete opposite of on toast. Chicken salad, on rye, untoasted ... and a cup of tea.

Elaine : Well, there's no telling what can happen from this...

George : Yeah, I should do the opposite, I should.

Jerry : If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.

George : Yes, I will do the opposite. I used to sit here and do nothing, and regret it for the rest of the day, so now I will do the opposite, and I will do something!

Tomorrow should be opposite day in the stock market. The unemployment rate should go up and we should lose at least 150,000 jobs, courtesy of the adjustment of the fictious jobs that the BLS always assumes are created in their birth/death model that they now will belatedly acknowledge that these jobs didn't exist.

So how do you play opposite day?

By buying an employment stock. Monster Worldwide (MNST 17.74).

Why? The chart looks horrible. So do the opposite. It's at a yearly low. So do the opposite. The economy is losing jobs. So buy the company that advertises jobs. It's opposite day!

And I just like the perverse idea of buying a stock that deals with employment on the day we get bad employment numbers!

Monster has $4.44 a share in cash. Net of cash, the stock is selling at 9X earnings. Does anybody think this franchise is worth more than that?

They just reported earnings of .40 for the quarter, beating estimates by .03 cents, and they also settled their legal disputes, by shelling out $47 million. The company has been cleaned up and scrubbed. Now it just needs the economy to turn around. And if anyone wants to acquire the company, you won't have this dispute hanging over the buyer's head. And unlike Wall Street, there are people that consider these businesses to have an enterprise value.

And if you want a shirt like the one I'm wearing, you can pick up some environmentally and eco friendly clothing this weekend at the 7th Street Fashion Show. Check the post above.

Maybe some of you hedge funds can spread some of that free money you're making on some unique clothing, instead of rigging the contemporary art market!

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