Thursday, July 31, 2008

Market trots out the three bears

Yesterday before the close Meredith Whitney's interview on CNBC was bandied about.

This morning it was Pimco's McCulley.

And today, in the final half hour, it was "the accident waiting to happen," Mr. Greenspan.

I said this morning to go and buy bonds and flip them into the unemployment numbers tomorrow.

And without the fantasy jobs by the BLS in the birth-death jobs in tomorrow's number, expect that rate to go higher again. You'd have to be a buyer of bonds today, and flip them on the number tomorrow.

It will be a heck of a trade.

But let's look at what Greenspan said. He said that we were in a "once in a century" crisis. He then said that the odds of a recession were 50/50. Huh? Did anyone catch that?

We've had 21 recessions in the last hundred years. So we get a recession every 5 years, yet the odds of a recession are only 50/50 in this "once in a century" crisis?

Forget what the bears say. This game is played to make money. So tomorrow, you buy stocks on the sloppy job numbers, and you sell the bonds you bought today.

How tough is that?


Anonymous said...

what do you think will happen tomorrow to General Motors?
really enjoy your postings!

Palmoni said...

I think GM hit it's lows on the july 15-17 when it rallied from 9 to 13.

And the low will hold.

The finacials rechecked their low, now it's GM's turn.

No-one (until today) even thought the Hummer brand had any value. Most thought they would have to pay somebody to take it off their hands.

GM has a ton of assets to sell, but the rating agencies, after getting hit by all this mortgage mess, need to yell fire, everytime they see a smoldering cigarette.

Anonymous said...

Nice call! :)

Palmoni said...

I got some help :)