Once again, you had your chance to buy!
And once again, you had it served to you on a silver platter!
As Advertised!!
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
The Bull is Back!!!
Once again, you had your chance to buy!
And once again, you had it served to you on a silver platter!
As Advertised!!
Barclay's tip sheet
1) BULLISH stocks right here, right now. SPX most oversold since Oct 10, 2008
2) Risk lvls down signif while SPX has diverged from copper--our fav indicator
3) Proof? Cmdty stocks vs underlying have unglued--AA/Alum, GDX/Gold, FCX/copper
4) This tells us how indiscriminate the derisking has become among equities
5) Retail selling accelerating, what you'd expect @ mkt bottom like last summer
6) Sentiment as bearish it's been in years as evidenced by AAII bull/bear stats
7) Aug skew at steepest lvls in yrs, implieds at highs = protection scramble
8) Fundamentls strong-equity risk prem on fwd 4Q ets is 6.75%,highest since 70's
9) Clearly the view is that these fwd ests are not accurate given macro slowdown
10) If you blv equity risk prem should be 5%, close to 30 yr high, that implies
11) EPS of $88/sh vs current est $108 implies fwd guide needs to decline by 18%
12) But unlike past recoveries cos haven't relevered, rehired, massively invest.
13) Therefore, in much better place to withstand slower activity and we note
14) Unlike '08 private sector lev low, cash lvls highest ever, massive liquidity
15) Attached-Italian bond spread to Germany vs S&P.Led us down, will lead us out
2) Risk lvls down signif while SPX has diverged from copper--our fav indicator
3) Proof? Cmdty stocks vs underlying have unglued--AA/Alum, GDX/Gold, FCX/copper
4) This tells us how indiscriminate the derisking has become among equities
5) Retail selling accelerating, what you'd expect @ mkt bottom like last summer
6) Sentiment as bearish it's been in years as evidenced by AAII bull/bear stats
7) Aug skew at steepest lvls in yrs, implieds at highs = protection scramble
8) Fundamentls strong-equity risk prem on fwd 4Q ets is 6.75%,highest since 70's
9) Clearly the view is that these fwd ests are not accurate given macro slowdown
10) If you blv equity risk prem should be 5%, close to 30 yr high, that implies
11) EPS of $88/sh vs current est $108 implies fwd guide needs to decline by 18%
12) But unlike past recoveries cos haven't relevered, rehired, massively invest.
13) Therefore, in much better place to withstand slower activity and we note
14) Unlike '08 private sector lev low, cash lvls highest ever, massive liquidity
15) Attached-Italian bond spread to Germany vs S&P.Led us down, will lead us out
Look for a reversal down on gold and silver
$1773 should mark a reversal--especially since Wall Street now is touting it to $2500!
I'd take some off the table.
And go to your neighborhood coin shop. Big lines today.
With the so called "dumb" public doing some selling.
Well why shouldn't they? They've already made 4-5X their money on gold, so they can piece some off!
Oh My! Wall Street feeds the bears a few morsels
Yes--A chance to make some money!
A chance to buy this dip.
Oh but they will tell you--we are heading in Great Depression II. We just kicked the can down the road....blah blah blah...whatever.
But since when does Wall Street actually have to reflect reality? If stocks priced in reality, BAC would be at 4, Citicorp would be at 20, and Wells Fargo would be at 16. But you will never see those prices because no-one in DC or Wall Street can see these names at the prices they should be.
And all you folks hoping that we will crash so you'll be able to do some shopping--you better start getting out your shopping lists--because these prices aren't going to last. You want some bargains on stocks? You'll have them tomorrow. But it when it breaks--and then if it doesn't bounce, buy yourself some peace of mind with some puts.
The market isn't complicated. You have a ton of folks hoping and praying and itching for a crash. heck they didn't cover at 666--so you think they'll cover here?
But you want to think we're going to revisit the lows of 2009? What are you--on crack? So think that they'll go there all you want. Go ahead--short em--and you'll just lose your ass. Because we already had the crash of your lifetime in March of 2009. Today and tonight is just another mini-flash crash.
And it's stoked by stories of debt and default.
So let's look at S&P who downgraded the US. Will the US default? When they can print their own currency? Of course not. But someone needed to bitch slap these politicians in Washington, who think the idea of work is appointing a super committee made up of debt czars. Sure our politics are a joke--but it's still something we can live with.
And really--does anyone think that S&P downgraded the US because they are still smarting from the mortgage mess and they still want to prove they are independent? And just like the mortgage mess--when S&P rated toxic securities AAA--who were their clients?
So who do you think their clients are now? That are paying them? That want this information to trade on before they tell the world?
So what do you think those leeches will do? They'll be covering their shorts into tonight's downdraft, because it isn't going to get much worse.
Every panicky hedge fund, that thinks the world is going to end, will soon flip flop as their bearish positions start turning against them. The bears staying power is even worse than the bulls!
The bears got their morsel, fed to them on a stick, by the kids at S&P.
And this sell-off is just another fleecing done by Wall Street.
Just another bear trap!
Monday, August 8, 2011
S&P 1119.46 Down 6.66%!!!
Bank of America storytime
Now that the stock is six and change, BAC says they don't need any capital. But when it was 11, last month, they said they might need $50 billion!
Bank of Opportunity is now Bank of Opportunity Cost!
Or maybe, it's just a precursor to this!
Same story, different name!!
Downgrade day!
In April, Geither said their was ZERO chance of a downgrade..."No risk." So Standard and Poors is wrong? "Absolutely"
In Washington, this is the definition of no risk.
And now, Geithner gets a few more years on his job, because that's how Washington works!
So what does it mean for the markets? It just means that gold becomes, once again, the favored currency of choice--that "barbaric relic" that people buy because, according to Bernanke because "gold isn't money" but they hold it because of "tradition!"
But as a practical matter, can we ever default when you can print your own currency?
Only if nobody accepts your dollar. And last I looked, all the unemployed will take any dollar from Uncle Sam.
As a practical matter, the downgrade is just headlines, but that will scare investors. Eventually, the gradually depreciating dollar will have inflationary effects---but that's hard to come by when the Uncle Sam Greenback is still scare on the intersection of Unemployed and Laid Off, if even they think otherwise on Wall and Broad!
In Washington, this is the definition of no risk.
kNOw your RISK!
And now, Geithner gets a few more years on his job, because that's how Washington works!
So what does it mean for the markets? It just means that gold becomes, once again, the favored currency of choice--that "barbaric relic" that people buy because, according to Bernanke because "gold isn't money" but they hold it because of "tradition!"
But as a practical matter, can we ever default when you can print your own currency?
Only if nobody accepts your dollar. And last I looked, all the unemployed will take any dollar from Uncle Sam.
As a practical matter, the downgrade is just headlines, but that will scare investors. Eventually, the gradually depreciating dollar will have inflationary effects---but that's hard to come by when the Uncle Sam Greenback is still scare on the intersection of Unemployed and Laid Off, if even they think otherwise on Wall and Broad!
Thursday, July 21, 2011
China now has Fake Apple Stores
Comes with the requisite faulty Chinese spelling!
Which means only an American company would pay over $100 a share for IDCC because at least here, IPR is respected!
story
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Judge rules upgrades/downgrades are not "proprietary" information
NYTimes
A federal appeals court ruled on Monday that investment banks could not stop a financial Web site from immediately publishing the research recommendations of their stock analysts, delivering a blow to Wall Street and a win for the investing public.
Perhaps more significant, the decision was a victory for Internet companies whose business models depend upon summarizing and commenting on others’ original content. Yet media businesses also cheered the ruling because it left in place legal protections against rogue competitors who copy and resell original news reporting at little or no cost.
“It’s a great decision for the free flow of information in the new media age,” said Kathleen M. Sullivan, a lawyer who filed a brief in the case on behalf of two clients, Google and Twitter.
In a lawsuit closely followed by the world’s largest financial, media and technology businesses, a panel of three judges on the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in Manhattan ruled that Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America could not dictate who reported news about their stock research — nor when they reported it.
A federal appeals court ruled on Monday that investment banks could not stop a financial Web site from immediately publishing the research recommendations of their stock analysts, delivering a blow to Wall Street and a win for the investing public.
Perhaps more significant, the decision was a victory for Internet companies whose business models depend upon summarizing and commenting on others’ original content. Yet media businesses also cheered the ruling because it left in place legal protections against rogue competitors who copy and resell original news reporting at little or no cost.
“It’s a great decision for the free flow of information in the new media age,” said Kathleen M. Sullivan, a lawyer who filed a brief in the case on behalf of two clients, Google and Twitter.
In a lawsuit closely followed by the world’s largest financial, media and technology businesses, a panel of three judges on the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in Manhattan ruled that Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America could not dictate who reported news about their stock research — nor when they reported it.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Thursday, June 2, 2011
JPM: BTFD
US Equity strategy – Constructive on selloff – 4 reasons for shifting call to buy the “summer of cyclicals” - The seeds of the downturn in economic momentum, and thus, the sell-off in Cyclicals, were first evident in early March, when economic momentum oscillators turned down (one easily accessed is the Citi Eco Surprise Index, CESIUSD Index GP <>). This was a reason for our downgrade of Consumer Discretionary on April 1 (and broader caution on Cyclicals, see “Circle of Life” dated 4/1/11). Since then, incoming economic data have disappointed so consistently that the EASI (or CESI) recently registered -91, the lowest non-recession reading since 2004, and last week, we saw a proximity to the low for the summer but needed to “look for additional confirmation” (see “Scared in May...June-Sept is front loaded” dated 5/26/11). We believe Wednesday’s 2.3% sell-off feels of capitulation and confirms summer weakness would be “front-end loaded.” Thus, we now see the big call is “Summer of Cyclicals” (Buy them), with 4 reasons: #1: Cyclicals have underperformed Defensives by 1,160bp since 2/16/11, matching the 1,109bp underperformance seen in April-August 2010 (see Figure 1). #2: Cyclicals now trade at a 4% discount to Defensive (rel P/E), lower than the rel P/E as of August 2010 and well below long-term average of 114% (see Figure 3). #3: EASI/CESI is at oscillator low and economists cutting forecasts now. 4: Capitulation evident in bearish AAII reading—a quality contrarian Buy signal. We identified 20 Cyclical stocks (Figure 11) using the following criteria: 1) Rated OW by JPM; 2) Mkt cap > $4b; 3) Cyclicals (Technology, Industrials, Discretionary, Materials); and 4) Top 20 Highest Potential Upside to JPM Target Price. T. Lee
US Equity technical strategist – Sector revie w- Industrials moves out of the more constructive group - The Consumer Staples and Health Care charts look more constructive relative to the others. The Energy and Financial Services charts look less constructive relative to the others. Consumer Discretionary (IXY) is likely to see more backing and filling after May’s 411 bearish reversal month. Consumer Staples (IXR) keeps a positive tone, but watch for divergences on new price highs. Energy (IXE) may be topping above 730; rel. str. gets more constructive above the violated April lows/May highs. Financials (IXM) downtrend and underperf. continues; a Fri close below 156 confirms a 158 bearish outside week. Health Care (IXV) pauses just shy of the 370 May ‘07 all time high; look for new highs after some consolidation. Industrials (IXI) leaves the “more constructive” group after May’s 390 bearish reversal month. Materials (IXB) trades in a large 384-434 Nov-June range; a Fri close below 413 confirms a 419 bearish reversal week. Technology (IXT) consolidates below the 269-271 resistance cluster; rel. str. continues to hold key support. Utilities (IXU) pauses after nearly achieving the 346 Mar 16-Apr 12 1.618 swing obj.; rel. str. meets resistance. Cohen
US Equity technical strategist – Sector revie w- Industrials moves out of the more constructive group - The Consumer Staples and Health Care charts look more constructive relative to the others. The Energy and Financial Services charts look less constructive relative to the others. Consumer Discretionary (IXY) is likely to see more backing and filling after May’s 411 bearish reversal month. Consumer Staples (IXR) keeps a positive tone, but watch for divergences on new price highs. Energy (IXE) may be topping above 730; rel. str. gets more constructive above the violated April lows/May highs. Financials (IXM) downtrend and underperf. continues; a Fri close below 156 confirms a 158 bearish outside week. Health Care (IXV) pauses just shy of the 370 May ‘07 all time high; look for new highs after some consolidation. Industrials (IXI) leaves the “more constructive” group after May’s 390 bearish reversal month. Materials (IXB) trades in a large 384-434 Nov-June range; a Fri close below 413 confirms a 419 bearish reversal week. Technology (IXT) consolidates below the 269-271 resistance cluster; rel. str. continues to hold key support. Utilities (IXU) pauses after nearly achieving the 346 Mar 16-Apr 12 1.618 swing obj.; rel. str. meets resistance. Cohen
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
JPM on LVS
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