Sunday, April 20, 2008

Apple's earnings

Apple reports earnings this Wednesday. They are expected to earn $1.06. Last quarter, Apple gave lousy guidance of .94 for the first quarter and the stock market crushed it's stock.

Apple always guides lower, and beats their numbers, but Wall Street is sick of their game. Here is a compilation of the last three years of Apple guidance, and how ridiculous it was.

This quarter, I believe Apple will play it straight and give guidance that is more appropriate and in-line with their actual business. Furthermore, I believe greater numbers of Christmas gift cards were redeemed in the first quarter, because of the excitement that Apple had when they were making an announcement at Macworld. The stock sold off because people were unimpressed on the introduction of the MacBook Air. But this announcement had the effect of pushing sales from the fourth quarter into the first quarter with the redemption of the Christmas and Holiday gift cards by those who expected an iPhone or iPod announcement.

.94 cents? Look for Apple to beat the published estimates of $1.06 by .20 cents and good guidance going forward. Especially with the rumors of 500,000 a month ramp of their new iPhones.

The four horsemen of tech are back!

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