tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post4242536857438415693..comments2024-03-15T02:40:09.484-04:00Comments on Wall Street Manna: ANF--Time for their booster shotPalmonihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-44581504253265355532009-11-09T10:50:29.447-05:002009-11-09T10:50:29.447-05:00Since goldman updraded and its up a bit already is...Since goldman updraded and its up a bit already is there still more to run with earnings announcement?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-82919164662061645872009-11-09T09:29:13.562-05:002009-11-09T09:29:13.562-05:00ANF goes higher--It's been bagged by so many o...ANF goes higher--It's been bagged by so many on the street --Here's what Goldman had to say about it this am:<br /><br />Source of opportunity<br />We upgrade ANF to Conviction List Buy from Neutral. We view the story as increasingly attractive within the<br />context of our investment framework, given a combination of: (1) Significant longer-term growth drivers:<br />Accelerating international store openings have the potential to almost double EPS in 2010 due to the much<br />higher productivity and profitability of these stores; We see ample room for more international openings in<br />2011 and beyond; and (2) Company specific drivers for improving sales trends in existing stores, including a<br />more vocal value message (which is starting to help traffic) and returning tourist visitation to the US.<br />Catalyst<br />ANF shares are 58% off their two year high vs. an average of only 25% for our apparel retail coverage. While<br />the international profit opportunity has been part of the bull case for some time, we see it as a bigger catalyst<br />for shares in the coming quarters as the pace of openings is accelerating notably vs. last 12 months and<br />domestic profit erosion should be much less of an offset thanks to drivers noted above. We expect ANF’s<br />stock to react favorably to improving sales trends in coming months and upside to EPS in 4Q and beyond.<br />Assuming higher sales, we raise our new 2009/2010/2011 EPS forecasts to $1.11/2.02/2.67 from<br />$0.99/$1.91/$2.49; our new estimates average 22% above consensus.<br />Valuation<br />Given ANF’s depressed margins and accelerating international growth, coupled with our expectation for<br />improving near-term trends, we believe shares should command a multiple premium to more mature peers.<br />Based on our new EPS and higher target multiples (6.5x EV/EBITDA and 22x PE), we are raising our 6-<br />month target to $45 from $36, implying 29% upside.<br />-----<br /><br />ANF drastically cut back store openings, cut CAPEX, so they can bring out better earnings witn international growth<br /><br />Heavily shorted stock-has no debt--and the buyers just pay up for itpalmonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12012035226073451275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-16453401427956943052009-11-09T09:06:15.075-05:002009-11-09T09:06:15.075-05:00Sorry what does goosed mean?And going with Goldman...Sorry what does goosed mean?And going with Goldman?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com