tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post3776725221032548218..comments2024-03-15T02:40:09.484-04:00Comments on Wall Street Manna: Bernie Madoff hangin' with the inmatesPalmonihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-63136914556690101602009-08-24T14:48:05.623-04:002009-08-24T14:48:05.623-04:00thanks...let me know...appreciate all the prospect...thanks...let me know...appreciate all the prospectsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-32041466474827228502009-08-24T14:35:22.828-04:002009-08-24T14:35:22.828-04:00I think momo can easily take it to 5 in this mark...I think momo can easily take it to 5 in this market.<br /><br />But I'll look around for a cheap play that hasn't yet movedpalmonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12012035226073451275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-60951380218379243122009-08-24T14:14:53.818-04:002009-08-24T14:14:53.818-04:00yea...saw it at 3.5 but forgot to sell nvda...now ...yea...saw it at 3.5 but forgot to sell nvda...now it's at 4...do you think it's a stretch? do you know a lot about AMD?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-83854558810080690992009-08-24T13:12:28.294-04:002009-08-24T13:12:28.294-04:00maybe AMD?maybe AMD?Palmonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-79326724182548320552009-08-24T12:59:28.415-04:002009-08-24T12:59:28.415-04:00thanks , trying to find a replacement for NVDA..tr...thanks , trying to find a replacement for NVDA..tryingt o unload todayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-46340083757318460292009-08-24T12:34:20.035-04:002009-08-24T12:34:20.035-04:00Also on NOK--Here's what Deutsche Bank had to ...Also on NOK--Here's what Deutsche Bank had to say about it this morning:<br /><br />Competitive pressure increasing into 2010. While we continue to believe a cyclical<br />upturn in handset demand is likely, competitive pressure in smartphones will<br />significantly increase into the seasonally important Q4 with 15-20 competitor models<br />hitting the market. We now believe Nokia's portfolio refresh will be inadequate to<br />enable share gains in Q4 which its current FY guidance implies. In addition we believe<br />the smartphone segment will commoditise in 2010 pressuring industry margins, while<br />competition in the low end is also rising. We cut estimates below consensus and<br />downgrade to Hold.<br /> Turning cautious on Q4 and less bullish on 2010. Our upgrade to Buy earlier this year<br />was driven by our view that: 1) handset demand would recover benefiting from<br />inventory and cyclical/consumer normalisation into 2010. 2) Nokia’s hi-end focused<br />portfolio refresh would enable it to at least maintain share and 3) Such improving<br />earnings visibility would re-rate the stock to 16x mid-cycle fwd P/E. While we still<br />expect a cyclical handset recovery, our analysis and channel checks suggest<br />competitive pressure in smartphones will significantly increase in Q4 with 15-20 new<br />models launched against Nokia’s 4-5. Also, we expect the currently highly profitable<br />smartphone segment to commoditize in 2010. This will in our view dampen any gross<br />margin improvement resulting from a cyclical demand recovery. Additionally we see<br />competitive pressure in the low-end increasing in Emerging Markets.<br /> Cutting estimates & target and lowering to Hold. In light of severely heightened<br />competitive activity, we feel Nokia’s product portfolio may not be competitive enough<br />to grow its market share in Q4 as its current guidance implies. We hence lower Q4E<br />market share from 39.3% to 38%, below implied guidance. For 2010 we lower market<br />share to 38% from 38.5%, leaving handset market growth (+9%) unchanged. Overall<br />we downgrade 2009/10 EPS by ~7%. Having recently disappointed the market with its<br />H2 margin outlook, we believe further market share uncertainty and downward<br />pressure on consensus will prevent a re-rating and offer better entry points in the<br />future.<br /> Lowering target; apply 20% discount to mid-cycle P/E. Our new target price (E9.5<br />from E13) reflects our estimate cuts and implies Nokia trades on 13x 2010E P/E, a<br />20% discount to its 16x historic mid-cycle fwd P/E to reflect earnings/market share<br />uncertainty. If we assume the stock traded on its mid-cycle multiple then the current<br />share price implies a market share loss to 34% in 2010 in our view. Key risks: Macro<br />weakness/improvement driving above/below handset demand; share losses/gains to<br />competitors; exchange rate movements.Palmonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-68427697986238634582009-08-24T11:55:17.037-04:002009-08-24T11:55:17.037-04:00NOK looks like it is bottoming on the chart, but I...NOK looks like it is bottoming on the chart, but I just don't trade the name.<br /><br />Too slow for me, as I get impatientPalmonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-41344116956400793992009-08-24T11:53:22.909-04:002009-08-24T11:53:22.909-04:00I still like the preferreds as an investment, but ...I still like the preferreds as an investment, but I'd wait for a better entry point on the common.<br /><br />I can't tout them after they've doubled in two days.<br /><br />The one easiest to make money on though is FNA. Bigger spread, fairly liquid, and it moves around.Palmonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-61912937332546410342009-08-24T11:47:56.984-04:002009-08-24T11:47:56.984-04:00so would you buy FRE or FNM at today's prices?...so would you buy FRE or FNM at today's prices? do they have anymore upside?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-69496490020345029952009-08-24T11:46:49.363-04:002009-08-24T11:46:49.363-04:00what do you think about NOK? they haven't gone...what do you think about NOK? they haven't gone up at all during this rally but has been down like $3Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-5904882657827998572009-08-24T11:42:30.617-04:002009-08-24T11:42:30.617-04:00Well they were touted here Thursday--and FNM FRE a...Well they were touted here Thursday--and FNM FRE and FNA have just about doubled since.<br /><br />http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2009/08/fannie-and-freddie.html<br /><br />But here's a reason with some meat on it. John Hempton, a real sharp guy, at Bronte Capital, put out a 7 part thesis on why the FNM and FRE stubs actually have value.<br /><br />Check it out at his site.<br /><br />http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/<br /><br />Here is his latest on FNM and FRE<br /><br />http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/08/modelling-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac_21.html<br /><br />Now think also why Central Bankers are keeping rates so low. We have an increasing foreclosure rate--thus increasing times to take houses through the legal process, thus Central banks need to keep the cost of funding those homes down, until the banks can get rid of their housing inventory.<br /><br />And the speculators want to play those names FRE and FNM--not they are finally looking at the preferreds.<br /><br />Here's something else to consider. Notice this tongue in cheek "tombstone" for Freddie<br /><br />http://www.froogalizer.com/news/rumors-of-deals-freddie-poops.html<br /><br />Actually there is a bit more truth there than anyone wants to recognize!!Palmonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-9318062855410228512009-08-24T11:25:59.678-04:002009-08-24T11:25:59.678-04:00why is FNM and FRE going up like 50% a day for las...why is FNM and FRE going up like 50% a day for last week or so?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-5244911512613765192009-08-24T09:58:02.287-04:002009-08-24T09:58:02.287-04:00I'm surprised they haven't killed him, tho...I'm surprised they haven't killed him, though he did wrong the weathly elite of society and a few "non-profit" orangaizations. So I guess these guys don't really care.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com