tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post3300645793580869103..comments2024-03-15T02:40:09.484-04:00Comments on Wall Street Manna: Thanks Goldman for the BIDU $$$Palmonihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-54336806096601341192009-06-23T23:20:21.305-04:002009-06-23T23:20:21.305-04:00Steel stocks have run a lot, but if current trends...Steel stocks have run a lot, but if current trends persist there is much more upside<br />1. Inventories are at 1997 levels. This, as service centers did not have the credit to maintain inventories.<br />2. Pricing is improving. China dumping has stabilized. Capacity has been taken offline. Signs of price increases now been put in, and sticking<br />3. Utilization at a low (50% or so) but improving. Signs of mill workers being called back. Any increase in utilization leads to margin expansion<br />4. Better balance sheets now. Names like Arcelor-Mittal have raised capital to improve their balance sheets<br />5. End demand will improve. Two key drivers: Auto demand improvement due to cash for clunkers, and property market appreciation in China, India and other emerging markets<br />6. Lower input costs. Coking coal and iron core costs are down 30+%.<br />7. The case for shorting steel is no more.<br /><br />I prefer MT over X (scale). MT for instance trades at 6x 09 ev/ebitda. But better topline, better margins, lower capex, better FCF and thus lower debt, makes the 2010 picture much better. At 6x 2010 ebitda MT could be worth upto 50$. Thats 50% upside from hereXnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-11980829267307751782009-06-23T12:39:49.882-04:002009-06-23T12:39:49.882-04:00X should be OK here-I covered my short calls on it...X should be OK here-I covered my short calls on it todayPalmonihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17670456087642069778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-33247184456121128762009-06-23T12:20:14.747-04:002009-06-23T12:20:14.747-04:00On FIG - How many times do you want to be raped by...On FIG - How many times do you want to be raped by Wes Edens?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-5605914039835922612009-06-23T11:41:22.513-04:002009-06-23T11:41:22.513-04:00any idea what's going on with FIG? secondary a...any idea what's going on with FIG? secondary at 5....dropped to 2.90 this morning and took an incredible beating yesterday.<br /><br />thanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3323125037607548189.post-56236007867815490582009-06-23T10:59:01.731-04:002009-06-23T10:59:01.731-04:00nice move, still bull on X?
thx
Bennice move, still bull on X?<br /><br />thx <br />BenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com