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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Bob Toll's customers didn't get Meredith Whitney's memo!


Remember that? Where home prices were supposed to fall another 25%? With the CNBC bobbleheads?

Maybe you should remember this---Bob Toll in August talking about a turn upwards in housing.

Because today we heard this from TOL: Pricing was UP! Contracts were up 17% from Q4 2007 in unit terms, but up 18% in dollar terms!

Wait--Weren't prices supposed to be going down? Didn't Meredith assure us of that?

But wait--Doug, "I called the generational low for the bottom in stocks but told you to sell it two weeks later" Kass said that it was only on 765 units--thus ignore it.

Maybe we should ignore the cancellation rate of 6.9% too!

How about ignore him????? When is someone going to do that???

Remember the frenzy in land mentioned here six days ago? You had a stampeding bull elephant, presaging the stampeding up of the next leg in this bull market.

Maybe the builders aren't so stupid. After all, even BZH made money-and they have no inventory either!


When are they going to acknowledge that?

And speaking of inventory, did anyone read this? Why do you think Buffett bought BNI? Because he wanted a train set? Or because he wanted to make some money!!

Quick--tell me the name of a guy with a big train collection. Now tell me the name of the richest guy in the world. Isn't that his motive?

Wait it's time for these bears to come up with a new bold call. I can see it now. Here it is:

"The S&P 500 will go over 1100!"

When will we hear that boldness? Come on bears--go for it!

You want to know where we are going, and where we are going by June? You want something bold?

Here. What I've been advertising!

1440 on the S&P 500. By June, 2010!

Is that clear enough?

How about a run to 1140, then a pullback to 1100, then a run to 1200 by the end of January?  At least, that's how I see it.

But no the bears argue differently--they say we have the "shadow" inventory of homes, along with Mr. "shadow" of Government statistics.

Fear the shadow!!


Remember my piece on fearing the shadow? When I was running steps in the stadium? I'll refresh:

But every bit of hard work always has its rewards. I was walking around the stadium, heading back to my car, taking my time, as two really fine looking coeds were walking in front of, and I couldn't help but overhear their conversation. One was just wearing shorts shirts and a sports bra, and the other had the same, but she had on these nylon zippered sweats. The girl, with the sweats says to the one not wearing hardly anything, "I'm so hot, I feel like just taking off these sweats." I started walking just a bit more quietly. Then she says, "I have so much sweat trapped down there, I'm afraid I'll get a yeast infection!" Time to jog to the car. The show is over!

And that's the bears argument.

If you did into it, you'll find its just limp.

No matter how much they dress it up!

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